Lecture 11: CBDCs & the Future of Money

Wholesale vs retail design · Digital Euro · e-CNY · programmable money

Prof. Dr. Andre Guettler
Prof. Dr. Andre Guettler Director of the Institute
Helmholtzstraße 22, Room 205
andre.guettler@uni-ulm.de
+49 731 50 31 030
Oliver Padmaperuma
Oliver Padmaperuma Doctoral Candidate
Helmholtzstraße 22, Room 203
oliver.padmaperuma@uni-ulm.de
+49 731 50 31 036

11.1 Course objectives

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • Welcome to
  • Course Objective
  • Course at a glance (1/3)
  • Course at a glance (2/3)
  • Course at a glance (3/3)
  • Assignments / Exams

Welcome to Emerging Technology & Finance

  • This is a flipped-classroom Bachelor course: every regular lecture (odd weeks) is followed by a flipped session (even weeks) where all groups present on the same topic. There is no exam to register for — sign up on the course Moodle page by 15 October 2026 so you receive announcements and the token-allocation quiz links.
  • Form a group of 4 by the end of Week 1 (Moodle sign-up sheet). Stragglers will be allocated by the lecturers.
  • Grading is 100% cumulative across the 6 flipped sessions: each session = 50% peer-allocated tokens + 50% lecturer evaluation. Each group gets 20 fresh tokens every flipped week to allocate to other groups via a Moodle quiz within 5 minutes of the session ending.
  • Submission per session: upload your slide PDF to Moodle before each flipped session starts. Ask questions during or right after each session — that is the preferred channel.
  • Admin / studies / exam-eligibility questions go to the registrar’s office (Studiensekretariat) at studiensekretariat@uni-ulm.de.
  • Course-content questions outside class: email oliver.padmaperuma@uni-ulm.de, CC andre.guettler@uni-ulm.de.
  • We also recommend the student advisory service.

Course Objective

Scope

We will:

  • Survey six emerging-technology modules at the cutting edge of finance: agentic AI · blockchain & DeFi · fintech business models · RegTech & cybersecurity · CBDCs
  • Pair every regular lecture with a flipped session in which every group presents their angle on the topic
  • Train critical evaluation, presentation, and peer-judgment skills via a transparent token-based peer-grading mechanic
  • Place the technologies in a real-world business and regulatory context (PSD2/3, MiCA, EU AI Act, post-quantum standards)

We will NOT:

  • Build production-grade fintech systems or trade live capital
  • Cover deep technical implementations (we treat code as supplement, not core)
  • Run a separate written exam or final-pitch competition — the cumulative flipped-session grade is the entire grade

Approach

Flipped-classroom alternation (12 weeks)

  • Odd weeks (W1, W3, W5, W7, W9, W11): regular lecture introducing the topic
  • Even weeks (W2, W4, W6, W8, W10, W12): flipped session — all groups present and allocate tokens
  • Groups of 4, formed by end of Week 1

Token mechanic (the grading vehicle)

  • 20 tokens per group per flipped session
  • Each group allocates them to other groups, weighing insight · originality · clarity · critical depth
  • Cumulative across 6 sessions = 50% of final grade · lecturer evaluation = 50%

Course at a glance (1/3)

Foundations of Digital Disruption in Financial Services

Week 1

22.10.2026

What is ‘emerging tech in finance’, how did we get here, where is it going

  • Three waves of digital disruption in finance
  • Today’s actors: incumbents, challengers, Big Tech, infrastructure
  • Regulatory backdrop: PSD2, MiCA, EU AI Act
  • Why now: structural drivers
  • What this course will cover

Flipped — Digital Disruption in Financial Services

Week 2

29.10.2026

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the foundations lecture
  • Group presentations on digital disruption
  • Token allocation & next steps

Agentic AI & LLMs in Finance

Week 3

05.11.2026

From LLMs to agents · applications · failure modes · EU AI Act

  • LLMs in finance: architecture, training, capabilities
  • Agentic AI: from answers to actions
  • Applications: RAG, robo-advisors, AML, trading agents
  • Failure modes: hallucination, drift, prompt injection
  • Governance: EU AI Act and high-risk obligations

Flipped — Agentic AI & LLMs in Finance

Week 4

12.11.2026

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the agentic AI lecture
  • Group presentations on real LLM and agent deployments
  • Token allocation & next steps

Blockchain, Crypto, DeFi & Tokenisation

Week 5

19.11.2026

From distributed ledgers to MiCA-regulated markets

  • Blockchain primer: ledgers, consensus, smart contracts
  • Crypto markets: BTC, ETH, stablecoins
  • DeFi primitives: AMMs, lending, derivatives
  • Tokenisation of real-world assets
  • MiCA framework and EU enforcement

Course at a glance (2/3)

Flipped — Blockchain, Crypto, DeFi & Tokenisation

Week 6

26.11.2026

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the blockchain & DeFi lecture
  • Group presentations on real protocols and deployments
  • Token allocation & next steps

Fintech Business Models

Week 7

03.12.2026

Neobanks, embedded finance, BNPL, Open Banking, Big Tech in finance

  • Neobanks: N26, Revolut, Monzo, Chime
  • Embedded finance & BaaS
  • BNPL: Klarna, Affirm, regulatory pushback
  • Open Banking & PSD2 outcomes
  • Big Tech in finance

Flipped — Fintech Business Models

Week 8

10.12.2026

Neobanks, embedded finance, BNPL · group presentations · token allocation

  • Recap of the fintech business-models lecture
  • Group presentations on real companies and unit economics
  • Token allocation & next steps

RegTech, Cybersecurity & Privacy-Preserving Compute

Week 9

17.12.2026

Industrialising compliance · cyber-threat landscape · ZKPs, MPC, federated learning · post-quantum

  • RegTech overview: industrialising compliance
  • KYC/AML automation in production
  • Cybersecurity threats in finance
  • Privacy-preserving compute: ZKPs, MPC, federated learning
  • Post-quantum cryptography & the migration

Flipped — RegTech, Cybersecurity & Privacy-Preserving Compute

Week 10

07.01.2027

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the RegTech & security lecture
  • Group presentations on vendors, incidents, and emerging tech
  • Token allocation & next steps

Course at a glance (3/3)

CBDCs & the Future of Money

Week 11

14.01.2027

Wholesale vs retail design · Digital Euro · e-CNY · programmable money

  • What’s a CBDC: wholesale vs retail
  • The Digital Euro state of play
  • China’s e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • Programmable money: feature, threat, or both
  • Stablecoins as private money: tension with CBDCs

Flipped — CBDCs & the Future of Money

Week 12

21.01.2027

Final session · group presentations · token allocation · course wrap-up

  • Recap of the CBDCs lecture
  • Group presentations on real CBDC projects
  • Token allocation, final standings, and course retrospective

Assignments / Exams

Six in-class group presentations across six emerging-tech topics, graded cumulatively. Each session: 50% peer-allocated tokens + 50% lecturer evaluation.

Group of up to 4.

Submit by emailing oliver.padmaperuma@uni-ulm.de, CC andre.guettler@uni-ulm.de. Subject pattern: Emerging Technology & Finance_assignment-1-flipped-classroom-presentations_surname1_surname2_…

21 January 2027

11.2 Recap from Lecture 10

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • What the flipped session surfaced

What the flipped session surfaced

  • Which RegTech vendor claims actually held up under scrutiny — usually the ones with public regulatory partnerships, not the ones with the loudest AI claims.
  • The most consequential cyber-incident lesson: third-party supply-chain is the dominant attack vector for 2024–26, and DORA is the regulator’s specific response.
  • Whether the post-quantum threat felt urgent or theoretical to the cohort — and the harvest-now-decrypt-later argument that usually shifts that perception.

11.3 What’s a CBDC

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • Three pieces of one phrase
  • Wholesale vs retail

Three pieces of one phrase

  • Central-bank — issued and guaranteed by a central bank (not a commercial bank, not a stablecoin issuer).
  • Digital — purely electronic; cash equivalent without physical form.
  • Currency — legal tender denominated in the sovereign currency.

CBDCs are not new technology — they are a new political-economic arrangement around digital money.

Wholesale vs retail

  • Users: commercial banks, large institutions.
  • Purpose: interbank settlement, cross-border payments.
  • Design: less politically charged; effectively a modernised reserve-account system.
  • Examples: BIS Project Agorá, Project mBridge (paused), Banque de France wholesale pilots.
  • Users: retail consumers and businesses directly.
  • Purpose: digital alternative to cash; financial inclusion; defence against private digital money.
  • Design: politically charged — privacy, holding limits, intermediation, programmability all contested.
  • Examples: Digital Euro, e-CNY, Sand Dollar, eNaira, e-krona (pilot), DCash.

11.4 The Digital Euro

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • Where the ECB is in 2026
  • What’s actually contested

Where the ECB is in 2026

  • Investigation phase (2021–23) — design exploration, stakeholder consultation.
  • Preparation phase (2023–25) — detailed design, regulation drafting, technology selection.
  • Decision expected in 2025–26 by ECB Governing Council.
  • Design choices being finalised: intermediated distribution (banks distribute, ECB issues), holding limits (€3,000 per person discussed), privacy by design (cash-like for small transactions).

What’s actually contested

  • Holding limits — €3,000 per person commonly proposed. Lower limits protect bank deposits; higher limits make the Digital Euro useful.
  • Privacy — ECB commits to “cash-like privacy for small transactions”; the threshold at which AML reporting kicks in is contested.
  • Programmability — ECB has consistently rejected fully programmable Digital Euro; some politicians and central bankers want richer programmability.
  • Offline functionality — peer-to-peer offline payments are technically feasible (token-based design) but operationally complex (device-side wallets, double-spend prevention).

11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • China’s e-CNY
  • Small-country CBDCs

China’s e-CNY

  • Largest pilot in the world by volume — cumulative transaction value reported by PBoC at ~$250B+ by mid-2024.
  • Two-tier system — PBoC issues; commercial banks distribute via wallets (similar in structure to what ECB proposes).
  • Surveillance properties — PBoC can see transactions; commercial banks cannot (a deliberate design choice).
  • Uptake — large in mandated use cases (government salaries, transit, lottery distribution) but modest in spontaneous consumer adoption.

Small-country CBDCs

  • Launched 2020.
  • Designed for financial inclusion across archipelago geography.
  • Modest uptake; struggles with merchant-acceptance network.
  • Launched 2021.
  • Very low retail uptake despite government mandates.
  • Honest lesson: deployment without ecosystem fails.
  • Multi-year pilots; no launch decision yet.
  • Sweden has unusually low cash use → strong motivation.
  • Cautious approach reflects unique demographics.
  • Eastern Caribbean Currency Union pilot.
  • Suffered a multi-month outage in 2022; informative postmortem on operational resilience.

11.6 Programmable money

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • What can mean
  • The civil-liberty trade-off

What “programmable” can mean

  • Conditional payments — funds release only when condition X is met (smart-contract-style escrow). Widely accepted.
  • Expiring money — funds revert after a date if unspent (proposed for stimulus and welfare). Controversial.
  • Targeted money — funds usable only at certain merchant categories (e.g. groceries-only welfare). Very controversial.
  • Auditable money — every flow logged; tax compliance automatic. Divisive across ideological lines.

The civil-liberty trade-off

  • Automated tax collection reduces evasion and improves fairness.
  • Programmable welfare can target real needs more precisely.
  • Conditional payments reduce fraud in B2B transactions.
  • A cash-like CBDC + opt-in smart-money options gives consumers both.
  • A government that can expire your money has unprecedented coercive power.
  • “Targeted” welfare can be weaponised against unpopular groups or dissenters.
  • Surveillance enabled by audit goes beyond historical norms even for digital payments.
  • Once programmable infrastructure exists, scope creep is hard to reverse.

11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • Two forms of digital money
  • Will stablecoins or CBDCs win the wallet?

Two forms of digital money

  • Public liability of the central bank.
  • Risk-free by construction (in the issuing currency).
  • Politically constrained — anonymity, programmability, intermediation.
  • Slow to deploy (Digital Euro timeline: ~5+ years from investigation to launch).
  • Private liability of an issuer.
  • Risk depends on backing — cash + T-bills (USDC) vs corporate paper (former USDT) vs algorithmic (UST collapsed) vs delta-hedged (USDe, novel).
  • Fast to deploy — USDC scaled to $50B+ in 4 years.
  • MiCA-regulated in the EU since 2024.

Will stablecoins or CBDCs win the wallet?

  • For most retail users, the question is unlikely to be a hard choice — wallets will hold both, and the consumer will not distinguish them at point of sale.
  • For B2B and cross-border, regulated stablecoins have a 2–3 year head start that may be hard to reverse.
  • Regulator choice is the deciding variable: stablecoin-permissive regimes (US under expected 2025–26 legislation) vs CBDC-prioritised regimes (EU) produce different equilibria.
  • The interesting failure mode: what happens if a major regulated stablecoin (USDC or USDT) depegs significantly in 2027?

11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11

  • 11.1 Course objectives
  • 11.2 Recap from Lecture 10
  • 11.3 What’s a CBDC
  • 11.4 The Digital Euro
  • 11.5 e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • 11.6 Programmable money
  • 11.7 Stablecoins vs CBDCs
  • 11.8 Conclusion of Lecture 11
  • Course at a glance (1/3)
  • Course at a glance (2/3)
  • Course at a glance (3/3)
  • Further reading
  • Prepare before final flipped session (Week 12)
  • See you next time
  • References

Course at a glance (1/3)

Foundations of Digital Disruption in Financial Services

Week 1

22.10.2026

What is ‘emerging tech in finance’, how did we get here, where is it going

  • Three waves of digital disruption in finance
  • Today’s actors: incumbents, challengers, Big Tech, infrastructure
  • Regulatory backdrop: PSD2, MiCA, EU AI Act
  • Why now: structural drivers
  • What this course will cover

Flipped — Digital Disruption in Financial Services

Week 2

29.10.2026

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the foundations lecture
  • Group presentations on digital disruption
  • Token allocation & next steps

Agentic AI & LLMs in Finance

Week 3

05.11.2026

From LLMs to agents · applications · failure modes · EU AI Act

  • LLMs in finance: architecture, training, capabilities
  • Agentic AI: from answers to actions
  • Applications: RAG, robo-advisors, AML, trading agents
  • Failure modes: hallucination, drift, prompt injection
  • Governance: EU AI Act and high-risk obligations

Flipped — Agentic AI & LLMs in Finance

Week 4

12.11.2026

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the agentic AI lecture
  • Group presentations on real LLM and agent deployments
  • Token allocation & next steps

Blockchain, Crypto, DeFi & Tokenisation

Week 5

19.11.2026

From distributed ledgers to MiCA-regulated markets

  • Blockchain primer: ledgers, consensus, smart contracts
  • Crypto markets: BTC, ETH, stablecoins
  • DeFi primitives: AMMs, lending, derivatives
  • Tokenisation of real-world assets
  • MiCA framework and EU enforcement

Course at a glance (2/3)

Flipped — Blockchain, Crypto, DeFi & Tokenisation

Week 6

26.11.2026

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the blockchain & DeFi lecture
  • Group presentations on real protocols and deployments
  • Token allocation & next steps

Fintech Business Models

Week 7

03.12.2026

Neobanks, embedded finance, BNPL, Open Banking, Big Tech in finance

  • Neobanks: N26, Revolut, Monzo, Chime
  • Embedded finance & BaaS
  • BNPL: Klarna, Affirm, regulatory pushback
  • Open Banking & PSD2 outcomes
  • Big Tech in finance

Flipped — Fintech Business Models

Week 8

10.12.2026

Neobanks, embedded finance, BNPL · group presentations · token allocation

  • Recap of the fintech business-models lecture
  • Group presentations on real companies and unit economics
  • Token allocation & next steps

RegTech, Cybersecurity & Privacy-Preserving Compute

Week 9

17.12.2026

Industrialising compliance · cyber-threat landscape · ZKPs, MPC, federated learning · post-quantum

  • RegTech overview: industrialising compliance
  • KYC/AML automation in production
  • Cybersecurity threats in finance
  • Privacy-preserving compute: ZKPs, MPC, federated learning
  • Post-quantum cryptography & the migration

Flipped — RegTech, Cybersecurity & Privacy-Preserving Compute

Week 10

07.01.2027

Group presentations · token allocation · discussion

  • Recap of the RegTech & security lecture
  • Group presentations on vendors, incidents, and emerging tech
  • Token allocation & next steps

Course at a glance (3/3)

CBDCs & the Future of Money

Week 11

14.01.2027

Wholesale vs retail design · Digital Euro · e-CNY · programmable money

  • What’s a CBDC: wholesale vs retail
  • The Digital Euro state of play
  • China’s e-CNY and small-country implementations
  • Programmable money: feature, threat, or both
  • Stablecoins as private money: tension with CBDCs

Flipped — CBDCs & the Future of Money

Week 12

21.01.2027

Final session · group presentations · token allocation · course wrap-up

  • Recap of the CBDCs lecture
  • Group presentations on real CBDC projects
  • Token allocation, final standings, and course retrospective

Further reading

  • Brunnermeier, James, and Landau (2019)The Digitalization of Money, NBER WP — the framing piece.
  • Auer and Böhme (2020) — BIS Quarterly on retail-CBDC design taxonomy.
  • Bank for International Settlements (2023) — Project Tourbillon: privacy, security, and scalability for CBDCs.
  • European Central Bank (2023) — ECB Digital Euro stocktake on the investigation phase.
  • Jack and Suri (2014) — Jack & Suri’s AER paper on M-Pesa — the lasting reference for retail digital money.

Prepare before final flipped session (Week 12)

  1. Pick your Week-12 angle from the presentation series brief.
  2. Bring numbers — uptake, transaction volume, design specifics, public ECB / PBoC / BIS statements.
  3. Take a defended position — Week 12 rewards groups that defend a thesis honestly rather than survey neutrally.
  4. Upload slide PDF to Moodle before 14:00 next Thursday.
  5. Course-feedback survey opens after Week 12 on Moodle — your honest input shapes next year’s course.

See you next time

Reminder

  • Final session: Lecture 12 — Flipped: CBDCs & the Future of Money on 21 January 2027.
  • Each group presents one final time.
  • Slides due on Moodle before 14:00.
  • After Week 12: final-grade publication within 2 weeks (after the end-of-term token-allocation audit); course-feedback survey.

References

Auer, Raphael, and Rainer Böhme. 2020. “The Technology of Retail Central Bank Digital Currency.” BIS Quarterly Review. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2003j.htm.
Bank for International Settlements. 2023. “Project Tourbillon: Exploring Privacy, Security and Scalability for CBDCs.” BIS Innovation Hub. https://www.bis.org/publ/othp80.htm.
Brunnermeier, Markus K., Harold James, and Jean-Pierre Landau. 2019. “The Digitalization of Money.” NBER Working Paper 26300. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26300.
European Central Bank. 2023. “A Stocktake on the Digital Euro: Summary Report on the Investigation Phase.” European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/digital_euro/.
European Parliament and Council. 2023. “Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA).” Official Journal of the European Union, L 150/40. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/1114/oj.
Jack, William, and Tavneet Suri. 2014. “Risk Sharing and Transactions Costs: Evidence from Kenya’s Mobile Money Revolution.” American Economic Review 104 (1): 183–223. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.183.